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Best CS2 Cases to Open (Expected Value)

Every CS2 case ranked by the estimated average return of one opening.

Which CS2 case should you open? We estimate the expected value of every case from live skin prices and the standard drop odds, and divide it by the price of the case plus a key. It is an estimate, not a prediction: StatTrak™ and marketplace fees are ignored.

No case pays back on average. The average return across 42 cases is 43.2%: for every dollar spent you get back about $0.43 on average.

CS2 cases ranked by expected return

#	Case	Case price	Key	Expected value	Return
1	eSports 2013 Winter CaseTop rare item: Karambit \| Fade (~$1,671.20)	$10.77	$2.49	$7.94	59.9%
2	CS:GO Weapon Case 3Top rare item: Karambit \| Fade (~$1,671.20)	$11.86	$2.49	$8.55	59.6%
3	Gamma CaseTop rare item: Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (~$2,872.48)	$2.63	$2.49	$2.90	56.6%
4	Gamma 2 CaseTop rare item: Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (~$2,872.48)	$2.61	$2.49	$2.88	56.4%
5	CS:GO Weapon Case 2Top rare item: Karambit \| Fade (~$1,671.20)	$17.82	$2.49	$11.40	56.1%
6	Chroma 2 CaseTop rare item: Karambit \| Doppler (~$3,411.06)	$3.39	$2.49	$3.28	55.8%
7	Glove CaseTop rare item: Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (~$3,464.46)	$8.84	$2.49	$6.28	55.5%
8	Chroma 3 CaseTop rare item: Karambit \| Doppler (~$3,411.06)	$3.02	$2.49	$3.01	54.6%
9	Chroma CaseTop rare item: Karambit \| Doppler (~$3,411.06)	$4.35	$2.49	$3.54	51.8%
10	Operation Vanguard Weapon CaseTop rare item: Karambit \| Fade (~$1,671.20)	$4.26	$2.49	$3.48	51.6%
11	Prisma CaseTop rare item: Talon Knife \| Doppler (~$1,441.71)	$1.08	$2.49	$1.82	51.0%
12	Spectrum 2 CaseTop rare item: Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (~$5,447.58)	$2.56	$2.49	$2.54	50.3%
13	Operation Hydra CaseTop rare item: Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (~$3,464.46)	$24.53	$2.49	$13.47	49.8%
14	Operation Wildfire CaseTop rare item: Bowie Knife \| Fade (~$192.16)	$2.46	$2.49	$2.42	48.9%
15	Spectrum CaseTop rare item: Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (~$5,447.58)	$3.11	$2.49	$2.72	48.7%
16	Prisma 2 CaseTop rare item: Talon Knife \| Doppler (~$1,441.71)	$0.99	$2.49	$1.64	47.3%
17	Horizon CaseTop rare item: Talon Knife \| Fade (~$755.70)	$1.36	$2.49	$1.80	46.7%
18	Operation Breakout Weapon CaseTop rare item: Butterfly Knife \| Fade (~$2,038.91)	$6.73	$2.49	$4.25	46.1%
19	eSports 2014 Summer CaseTop rare item: Karambit \| Fade (~$1,671.20)	$10.64	$2.49	$5.97	45.5%
20	Operation Phoenix Weapon CaseTop rare item: Karambit \| Fade (~$1,671.20)	$3.25	$2.49	$2.52	43.9%
21	Revolver CaseTop rare item: Karambit \| Fade (~$1,671.20)	$2.48	$2.49	$2.18	43.9%
22	Operation Broken Fang CaseTop rare item: Sport Gloves \| Nocts (~$530.56)	$5.21	$2.49	$3.33	43.2%
23	Shadow CaseTop rare item: Shadow Daggers \| Fade (~$139.18)	$1.45	$2.49	$1.70	43.1%
24	Shattered Web CaseTop rare item: Skeleton Knife \| Fade (~$465.88)	$3.59	$2.49	$2.60	42.8%
25	Winter Offensive Weapon CaseTop rare item: Karambit \| Fade (~$1,671.20)	$8.49	$2.49	$4.64	42.2%
26	Dreams & Nightmares CaseTop rare item: Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (~$2,882.84)	$0.93	$2.49	$1.42	41.5%
27	Falchion CaseTop rare item: Falchion Knife \| Fade (~$196.92)	$1.40	$2.49	$1.58	40.7%
28	Huntsman Weapon CaseTop rare item: Huntsman Knife \| Fade (~$213.45)	$7.27	$2.49	$3.81	39.0%
29	Fever CaseTop rare item: Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (~$1,226.70)	$0.55	$2.49	$1.15	37.9%
30	Operation Riptide CaseTop rare item: Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (~$2,882.84)	$7.59	$2.49	$3.82	37.9%
31	Snakebite CaseTop rare item: Sport Gloves \| Nocts (~$530.56)	$0.34	$2.49	$1.06	37.5%
32	Danger Zone CaseTop rare item: Talon Knife \| Fade (~$755.70)	$0.98	$2.49	$1.27	36.7%
33	CS20 CaseTop rare item: Classic Knife \| Fade (~$244.83)	$0.76	$2.49	$1.19	36.7%
34	Gallery CaseTop rare item: Kukri Knife \| Fade (~$147.77)	$0.60	$2.49	$1.12	36.3%
35	Recoil CaseTop rare item: Sport Gloves \| Nocts (~$530.56)	$0.22	$2.49	$0.80	29.7%
36	Clutch CaseTop rare item: Sport Gloves \| Vice (~$466.75)	$0.42	$2.49	$0.84	28.8%
37	CS:GO Weapon CaseTop rare item: Karambit \| Fade (~$1,671.20)	$99.72	$2.49	$28.81	28.2%
38	eSports 2013 CaseTop rare item: Karambit \| Fade (~$1,671.20)	$40.00	$2.49	$11.82	27.8%
39	Revolution CaseTop rare item: Sport Gloves \| Vice (~$466.75)	$0.14	$2.49	$0.73	27.6%
40	Fracture CaseTop rare item: Skeleton Knife \| Fade (~$465.88)	$0.38	$2.49	$0.78	27.0%
41	Operation Bravo CaseTop rare item: Karambit \| Fade (~$1,671.20)	$52.50	$2.49	$14.68	26.7%
42	Kilowatt CaseTop rare item: Kukri Knife \| Fade (~$147.77)	$0.10	$2.49	$0.63	24.2%

How the expected value is calculated

Expected value = sum of (tier odds × average skin price in that tier of the case). A skin's value is what one unboxed copy is worth on average: each wear's price (cheapest marketplace listing, Steam as fallback) weighted by the chance of rolling that wear, since the float is uniform within the skin's range. The rare tier uses the average over every knife or glove in the case. Return = expected value / (case price + $2.49 key).

Rarity	Odds
Mil-Spec (blue)	79.92%
Restricted (purple)	15.98%
Classified (pink)	3.20%
Covert (red)	0.64%
Rare special item (knife/gloves)	0.26%

Not included: StatTrak™ (10% of drops), rare patterns and low floats, and marketplace fees. Real results can differ either way.

FAQ

What is the best case to open in CS2?

By our estimate the eSports 2013 Winter Case currently has the best expected return: about $7.94 per opening for $13.26 (case + key), or 59.9%.

Is opening CS2 cases profitable?

No. None of the 42 cases pays back on average: the average return is 43.2%, and the worst (Kilowatt Case) returns 24.2%. Most of the value sits in very rare knives and gloves.

How is the expected value calculated?

We use the standard odds: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64%, rare special item 0.26%. Within a rarity every skin is treated as equally likely, and valued at what one unboxed copy is worth on average (each wear's price weighted by its chance). The expected value is divided by the case price plus a $2.49 key. StatTrak™ and fees are ignored, so this is an estimate.

How much is a CS2 case key?

Keys cost $2.49 in the in-game store (USD price; it differs in other currencies). Keys cannot be resold on the Community Market.

Prices updated: Oct 6, 2026, 12:44 PM UTC.